IF THE talk of the Cheltenham Festival preview circuit is to be believed then Fact To File is one the bankers of the entire four days in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (2.10pm).
Second in last year’s Champion Bumper, Willie Mullins skipped a hurdle campaign with the seven-year-old, and after a disappointing debut over the bigger obstacles, he has looked really good on his next two starts at Leopardstown.
He jumped like a stag in a duel with Gaelic Warrior last time and could be a real force over fences in the years to come.
The big issue I have with him is that he does look like a horse with plenty of speed and many think he should be running in Thursday’s Turners as a result.
He might just have too much class for them as many of the Mullins brigade tend to do, but at a very short price and on ground that could be very hard work, I’m inclined to take him on.
If the rain continues to fall, the ground is going to be verging on bottomless and stamina is going to be a must and that certainly brings STAY AWAY FAY into it.
He’s perhaps doesn’t have the sexiest of profiles, but he is the reigning Albert Bartlett winner, has looked a natural over fences, and most importantly for today, has bucketloads of stamina.
He tried his hand in open company last time in the Cotswold Chase and was far from disgraced when finishing third to Capodanno.
There weren’t many going better than him turning in and perhaps experience just got the better of him, but connections would surely have been very happy with the run and it should have set him up perfectly for this contest.
I have a feeling that will have brought him forward massively mentally as well as physically and he might just grind this one out at 10/3 with Grosvenor Sport.
Paul Nicholls has always said this was his Cheltenham target and, as we know, the Champion Trainer is rarely wrong when he aims one of his horses at a big pot.
I know his jockey Harry Cobden believes Stay Away Fay is his best chance of a winner this week and I can see exactly why he thinks that.
Of the others, Henry de Bromhead’s Monty’s Star definitely has a chance with his trainer talking him up in the weeks leading up to the race.
He was impressive at Punchestown last time and is entitled to come on again for that, but he is facing proper Grade One horses here and he sunk without a trace in last year’s Albert Bartlett behind Stay Away Fay.
The other one I wouldn’t totally rule out is Lucinda Russell’s Giovinco.
A big step up is required to win this, but he’s a horse the Russell yard think a lot of and don’t forget he gave Stay Away Fay a proper race at Sandown in early December.
There aren’t many better trainers with long distance chasers than Russell, so I could see her charge running well, but I’m very much in the Stay Away Fay camp.
Conditions will be perfect for him, and I fancy him to serve it up to the favourite.
POINTERS
Stay Away Fay 2.10pm Cheltenham