In recent weeks, speculation has become increasingly feverish in Westminster that the Conservatives could go early, roll the dice and opt to call a May election.
The reasoning, some said, was clear: avoid a damaging set of local election results on May 2, a potential boost if Rwanda deportation flights get off the ground soon, and – hopefully – avoid the spectre of the Tories’ increasingly dire poll ratings getting, God forbid, even worse.
Rumours were even circulating that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was curiously avoiding firming up key international travel and meetings throughout April, according to some.
But after Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s somewhat irascible efforts in the Commons today, it appears the tide of supposition that temporarily flooded SW1 has, well, swept out again.
The reason? The budget didn’t quite feel enough to go to the public’s doorsteps with.
Hunt’s well-publicised giveaway
Hunt delivering his best supply teacher impression as he told rancorous MPs “I can wait” was one interesting thing about a Budget which saw the deputy Speaker implore backbenchers to “please shout more quietly”.
The mood felt frustrated. MPs were riled up, but with no election date on the horizon, that pent-up energy, un-channelled into campaigning, turned petulant rather than passionate.
Another was the nature of the Budget itself: pre-briefed, limited and rather underwhelming. It didn’t exactly set economists’ hearts racing or release fiscal cats among the pigeons.
“This Budget has not shifted the dial,” declared shadow skills minister Seema Malhotra, in a neat summation of the day’s sound and fury.
Given Hunt offered voters the same giveaway at November’s Autumn Statement and his much-trumpeted 2p National Insurance (NI) cut – sound familiar? – resoundingly failed to reverse the flagging polls when it hit the nation’s wage slips in January, it’s a fair comment.
One Conservative source, who shall remain nameless, reckons the package “shows it will definitely be November”, and described Hunt’s efforts as “tinkering”.
They added: “There isn’t that much that makes the public go ‘wow, this is incredible’ and give [Sunak] the bump needed to call for May.”
That said, this will probably be the last Budget before an election, with future income tax cuts thought more likely to take the form of an ‘election promise’.
Which means we can read into the tea leaves of Hunt’s messaging to glean the shape of the manifesto to come – with abolishing National Insurance or folding it in with income tax to simplify levies on employment – clearly a key battleground to come.
Labour may be talking up May big-style, with one shadow minister even placing £10 bets live on Sky News with Kay Burley, but as much as they protest, as it stands, the smart money remains on the autumn.