The UK is set to slip down the world rankings of GDP per capita by the end of the decade after being weighed down by “subpar” growth, a new report has said.
The British economy will fall from its current rank of 19th to 21st next year and down further still to 22nd by 2030, according to forecasts by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr).
It will be overtaken by Hong Kong, European neighbour Finland and the United Arab Emirates over that period.
In dollar terms, UK GDP per capita will rise 3.7 per cent to $58,775 next year and a further 8.4 per cent in the four years to 2030.
“2025 marked the first full year in office for the Labour government. Having been elected on a platform to boost growth, only very limited success has been achieved,” Cebr said, adding it expects the UK economy to have grown by 1.4 per cent in 2025 and continue to grow at an average annual rate of around 1.5 per cent.
“Though amongst the fastest rates in the G7, and the UK’s strongest performance since 2022, this would still fall far short of historical trends.
The government’s set of policy announcements at the Autumn 2025 Budget did little to support the near-term growth outlook. As such, over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is set to remain subpar.”
UK to become fifth largest economy
Despite the fall in GDP per capita, Cebr said the UK is set to become the world’s fifth largest economy and hold on to that position until at least 2040, largely due to “the poor performance of other economies of a similar size”.
A lack of GDP growth for Japan will see the country slip behind the UK in the coming years, as it wrestles with an ageing population and low birth rate. Meanwhile India will move from fifth to third place, and the US is expected to hold on to its ranking as the world’s largest economy despite China closing the gap.
Overall the global economy slowed for a fourth consecutive year to a growth rate of 2.6 per cent, Cebr said, with the sluggish growth rate set to continue throughout the rest of the 2020s.
“It has been some time since the global economy experienced a ‘normal’ year. That trend continued in 2025, a year typified by a significant shake-up of the global trading order,” Cebr said.
“It is not uncommon for slowdowns and shocks to be followed by stronger years, as impacts dissipate and economies settle into new circumstances. However, Cebr judges that 2026 will bring a further period of slower growth.
“Many of the impacts of trade policy changes are yet to fully materialise, while significant risks to the outlook remain, across fiscal policy, international relations, and inflation dynamics.”