China pledged on Saturday to “significantly increase” debt to revive its sputtering economy, but left investors guessing on the overall size of the stimulus package, a vital detail to gauge the longevity of its recent stock market rally.
Finance Minister Lan Foan told a press conference Beijing will help local governments tackle their debt problems, offer subsidies to people with low incomes, support the property market and replenish state banks’ capital, among other measures.
These are all steps investors have been urging China to take as the world’s second-largest economy loses momentum and struggles to overcome deflationary pressures and lift consumer confidence amid a sharp property market downturn.
But Lan’s omission of a dollar figure for the package is likely to prolong investors’ nervous wait for a clearer policy roadmap until the next meeting of China’s rubber-stamp legislature, which approves extra debt issuance. A date for the meeting has yet to be announced but it is expected in coming weeks.
The press conference “was strong on determination but lacking in numerical details,” said Vasu Menon, managing director for investment strategy at OCBC in Singapore.
“The big bang fiscal stimulus that investors were hoping for to keep the stock market rally going did not come through,” said Menon, adding this may “disappoint some” in the market.
A wide range of economic data in recent months has missed forecasts, raising concerns among economists and investors that the government’s roughly five per cent growth target this year was at risk and that a longer-term structural slowdown could be in play.
Data for September, which will be released over the coming week, is expected to show further weakness, but officials have expressed “full confidence” that the 2024 target will be met.
New fiscal stimulus has been the subject of intense speculation in global financial markets after a September meeting of the Communist Party’s top leaders, the Politburo, signalled an increased sense of urgency about the economy.
Chinese stocks reached two-year highs, spiking 25 per cent within days since that meeting, before retreating as nerves set in given the absence of further policy details from officials. Global commodity markets from iron ore to industrial metals and oil have also been volatile on hopes stimulus will stoke sluggish Chinese demand.
Reuters reported last month that China plans to issue special sovereign bonds worth about 2 trillion yuan ($284.43bn) this year as part of fresh fiscal stimulus.
By Kevin Yao and Joe Cash, Reuters