The biggest changes to the football transfer market since the Bosman ruling could be unleashed on Friday at the European Court of Justice, potentially making it easier for players to walk away from their contracts at will.
That is when the ECJ is due to deliver its verdict in a long-running dispute between world governing body Fifa and the retired former Chelsea, Arsenal and Real Madrid midfielder Lassana Diarra.
And the indications are that Diarra may win – a decision that would send shockwaves through the professional game and may lead to fundamental changes to the way that players move between clubs.
What is the Diarra ruling about?
Diarra’s dispute dates back to his sacking by Lokomotiv Moscow in 2014 for allegedly refusing to train after the club asked him to take a pay cut.
Fifa ordered Diarra to pay €10m in damages and refused to let him sign for another club until he did, a decision which the Court of Arbitration for Sport also upheld.
Crucially, Fifa also warned any clubs who might be thinking about signing the France international that they too would be liable to pay damages.
A proposed deal to join Belgian club Charleroi collapsed, so Diarra sued Fifa for €6m in lost income at a local court – and won.
The court agreed that Fifa’s rules were anti-competitive and infringed Diarra’s right to freedom of movement; in short, that they did not comply with EU law.
Fifa appealed the verdict and the case was referred to the ECJ for a decision.
Why is the Diarra ruling so significant?
The case is essentially about the rights that contracts give clubs over their players, so the verdict could lead to a major swing in the balance of power towards the talent.
If the ECJ decides that Fifa’s rules are too restrictive then they will have to be rewritten, meaning greater scope for players to break their contracts without just cause.
And if that happens then transfer fees look certain to fall, as players would be able to move clubs without needing an agreement between the two teams.
That is already the case for players whose contracts have expired, thanks to the ECJ’s landmark 1995 ruling in a case brought by jobbing player Jean-Marc Bosman.
Bosman’s lawyer was his fellow Belgian Jean-Louis Dupont, a specialist in testing football’s compliance with EU statutes who is also representing Diarra.
What is the likely outcome of the Diarra ruling?
Earlier this year, Advocate General Maciej Szpunar gave his non-binding opinion on the Diarra case: that Fifa’s rules “may be contrary” to EU law.
“There is little doubt about the restrictive nature of the Fifa regulations,” he wrote. “The contested regulations naturally restrict the players’ options to change clubs.”
He also said that the current consequences for players breaching contract without just cause were “draconian” and designed to “send a chill down each player’s spine”.
The ECJ does not have to follow the AG’s guidance, but it usually does. If Diarra does become the new Bosman, the impact will far outweigh anything he achieved on the pitch.