The Conservative Party is enjoying the sugar rush of a leadership campaign, but the grim reality of opposition will soon sink in, says Matthew Lesh
The vibe at the Conservative Party conference this week in Birmingham was chipper.
Well-lubricated members excitedly shuffled between drinks receptions headlined by the four leadership contenders. There were impromptu rallies, Pravda-style daily candidate newspapers, and colourful lanyards and badges. The hottest competition was for the merch, from Robert Jenrick’s ‘We Want Bobby J’ baseball caps to Tom Tugendhat’s ‘Tugend-tan’ fake tan.
In the last few years, a sense of panic has purveyed conference – from Liz Truss’ short reign crashing down in real-time all around us to Rishi Sunak walking zombie-like into inevitable oblivion. The chatter inevitably turned to the failures of the government to actually be conservative, with the members feeling betrayed. Now the leadership candidates are telling those members what they want to hear, but without the pressure of having to deliver.
In July, the British people put the Tories out of their misery. There’s no longer a need to defend, with an underlying sense of guilt, a failing government. The responsibility for jumpstarting a stagnating economy and fixing the broken NHS is now with somebody else. Being in opposition is fun, at least at first – you get to complain with no responsibility. It’s even better now that shadow ministers, without any leadership or direction, can freewheel on policy without anyone noticing. They can even pretend they were not in power five minutes ago, talking about the previous government in the abstract rather than taking responsibility.
Labour’s extraordinarily short honeymoon and the prospect of a new leader mean sunnier days appear to be on the horizon. There is perhaps even a sense of schadenfreude that the new government finds it just as hard as they did. In the immortal words of the leading philosopher of our age, Kamala Harris: what can be, unburdened by what has been.
The trouble is – also in the words of Harris – the Tories don’t live in a coconut tree, they exist in a context. The last election result was their worst in their nearly 200-year history, a damning indictment of 14 years of Conservative government. The public lost trust in their competence, and that’s extremely difficult to regain from opposition.
Where’s the bitchiness and blame-gaming?
There was a surprising lack of bitchiness or blame-gaming for recent failures this week, something which many in the party saw as welcome. However, this could reflect a deeper failure to understand how and why things went wrong.
Looking forward, the situation is no easier. The party faces dual and contrasting threats from Nigel Farage’s insurgent Reform Party and the renewed Liberal Democrats. How they try to win back such different voters is entirely unclear, let alone the need to construct a politically viable policy agenda that can resolve Britain’s myriad challenges.
They have a big opportunity. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s approval rating has tanked, with even Sunak marginally ahead in some polls. The Tories could construct battle line on the economy, particularly if policies like labour market regulation, banning new oil and gas, and higher taxes do damage.
The Tories could construct battle line on the economy, particularly if policies like labour market regulation, banning new oil and gas, and higher taxes do damage
Nevertheless, this week will likely be the ‘best’ conference for the Conservative Party for many years. The sugar rush of leadership campaigns may have kept people engaged. But by next year, the long, hard, and cold reality of opposition will have dawned. Fewer people will attend and there will be even less media and corporate interest. It is still many years before the election, and even if the new government continues to struggle, the Tories will still be very far from the levers of power.
For now, however, it’s just the hangover from one last champagne reception.
Matthew Lesh is the Country Manager at Freshwater Strategy and Public Policy Fellow at the Institute of Economic Affairs