Kemi Badenoch’s poll lead amongst Tory members has dropped from 18 points to just four ahead of rival Robert Jenrick, a new survey has found.
The YouGov poll with Sky News found that if Badenoch and Jenrick went head-to-head in the final round, members would choose her by 52 per cent versus his 48 per cent.
It compares to her previous lead on 59 per cent to his 41 per cent as of six weeks ago, among those who will decide on the final candidate to take over from Rishi Sunak.
Pollsters spoke to some 802 Conservative Party members over a nine-day period to Sunday, September 29 – the first full day of Tory conference.
The shift shows the former migration minister is closing in on the former business secretary as the race has hotted up during the four day annual conference in Birmingham.
Badenoch, who now serves as shadow housing secretary in opposition, was widely seen as the one to beat, but appears to have lost her head start in the contest.
Jenrick’s backing appears to have surged, the exclusive survey reported, but a potential route to victory still exists for all four candidates, YouGov found.
It comes ahead of another round of voting by MPs next week to reduce the field to just two.
Fellow leadership hopeful James Cleverly – a former home and foreign secretary – came behind Jenrick by just four points – 52 versus 48 – if the two were in a final head-to-head.
While he would rank eight points below Badenoch, with her on 58 and Cleverly on 46.
Former security minister Tom Tugendhat has the worst chance, the poll found, with members rating him as losing to both Badenoch and Jenrick by 16 points.
Badenoch has faced criticism for her comments about maternity pay, with rival contenders seizing on her remarks, in what’s been dubbed the ‘Stop Kemi’ campaign.